It was as if millions of subscribers cried out in terror and suddenly went quiet.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday was the biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. The lender, which served some of the most prominent tech companies and startups, was taken over by the FDIC after a run on deposits and fears of a wider contagion. The bank had nearly $175 billion in customer deposits, many of which belonged to tech workers and entrepreneurs.
What does this mean for the economy? One way to think about it is to imagine the decisions that millions of SVB customers are making right now, as they face uncertainty about their money and their future. How will their spending habits change? How will their choices affect other businesses and sectors?
Let’s take a typical employee of an SVB customer, Bob, who works as a software engineer at a mid-sized tech company that banks with SVB. Bob has a monthly salary of $10,000, which he deposits in his checking account at a different bank. He also has a savings account with the same bank, where he’s accumulated $10,000 for emergencies and future goals. He uses his debit card and online banking for most of his transactions.
Bob is a loyal subscriber to several online services and platforms, such as Netflix, Spotify, Amazon Prime, and Medium. He pays a total of $100 per month for these subscriptions, which he enjoys and finds useful. He also likes to shop online, especially for clothes, books, and gadgets. He spends about $500 per month on these purchases, which he considers discretionary and not essential.
When Bob hears the news that SVB has collapsed, he is shocked and worried. He is relieved that he doesn’t bank with SVB, but he wonders if his employer will be able to pay him his next salary, or if they will go bankrupt too. He knows that his employer relies on SVB for funding and financing, and that they may face liquidity problems and bankruptcy. He feels anxious and insecure about his job situation.
Bob decides to cancel all his online subscriptions, as he doesn’t want to spend money on services he can’t afford. He also stops buying anything online, as he wants to save as much as possible. He only spends money on the essentials, such as food, rent, and utilities. He hopes that his employer will survive the crisis, but he also prepares for the worst.
Bob is not alone. Millions of SVB customers and employees are making similar decisions, as they try to cope with the loss of their bank and their jobs. The impact of these decisions is huge, as they affect the revenues and profits of many online businesses and platforms. Netflix, Spotify, Amazon, and Medium all see a sharp drop in their subscriber base and their income. They have to cut costs, lay off workers, and reduce their investments. The tech sector, which relies heavily on SVB for funding and financing, suffers a major blow, as many startups and companies face liquidity problems and bankruptcy.
The ripple effects of the SVB crisis are not limited to the online world. The reduced spending and consumption of SVB customers and employees also hurts the offline economy, as they buy less goods and services from local stores, restaurants, and entertainment venues. The demand for transportation, travel, and tourism also declines, as people stay home and save money. The overall economic activity and growth slows down, as confidence and trust erode. The collapse of a large and influential bank can have far-reaching and long-lasting consequences for the economy and society. The decisions that millions of people make in response to such a crisis can either mitigate or exacerbate the damage.
The question is, how will we choose?